La curva de tipos como indicador adelantado para anticipar las grandes recesiones de ee.uu desde el siglo XX

Abstract

Since the 20th century, United States has suffered great economic recessions that even affected the economies of other countries, as expected, considering that it is one of the great world powers. These recessions have been anticipated through the yield curve, which is a graphical representation of interest rates of bonds offered by the government in the short and long term. Through this yield curve, the future of an economy can be predicted and valued, therefore it represents a fundamental importance when interpreting the expectations of investors, which is to generate profitability with data and information provided by the financial market. It is known that the yield curve, specifically the inverted one, has often been preceded by an economic recession, making it one of the most studied to anticipate these, as it was in the cases of the Great Depression, the oil crisis, The crisis of the 80s and the Great Recession in 2008, among others, is why today the great market analysts, seeing the trend of this curve, believe that for the next few years, United States will enter a recession again.