Publicación:
Enfoque scenario planning: navegando el futuro con estrategias dinámicas

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dc.contributor.authorChalapud Narváez, Eduardo David
dc.contributor.authorParodi Camaño, Tobías Alfonso
dc.contributor.authorMercado Hoyos, Luis Enrique
dc.date.accessioned2025-04-08T21:02:08Z
dc.date.available2025-04-08T21:02:08Z
dc.date.issued2025-04-08
dc.description.abstractScenario Planning, actualmente, es un recurso clave en la gestión de incertidumbre y toma de decisiones. Desde el principio, se ha mirado como una herramienta dinámica, que se adapta a diferentes corrientes de pensamiento, encontrando aplicación en varios campos de la investigación y contextos (Cordova & Rouwette, 2023). De acuerdo con Araújo & Casimiro (2020), los escenarios se presentan como una herramienta estratégica para proyectar a largo plazo la visión de una organización o sociedad, especialmente en un entorno caracterizado por una alta incertidumbre. Estos escenarios se conciben como un conjunto estructurado de formas de pensamiento que exploran diversos futuros alternativos, permitiendo así que las decisiones se articulen y desarrollen narrativas sobre el curso del mundo a largo plazo (Schwartz, 1996).spa
dc.description.editionPrimera edición
dc.description.tableofcontentsPRÓLOGO ............................. 6
dc.description.tableofcontentsAGRADECIMIENTOS..................7
dc.description.tableofcontentsPRESENTACIÓN........................ 8
dc.description.tableofcontentsINTRODUCCIÓN.......................... 9
dc.description.tableofcontentsCAPÍTULO 1: CONTEXTO HISTÓRICO DEL ENFOQUE SCENARIO PLANNING ...... 12
dc.description.tableofcontentsCAPÍTULO 2: FUNDAMENTOS TEÓRICOS DEL ENFOQUE SCENARIO PLANNING... 14
dc.description.tableofcontentsGestión estratégica .................. 14
dc.description.tableofcontentsTeoría de los sistemas complejos .......................... 14
dc.description.tableofcontentsPsicología cognitiva .................... 15
dc.description.tableofcontentsLógica intuitiva............................................ 16
dc.description.tableofcontentsCAPÍTULO 3: METODOLOGÍAS Y EXPERTOS DEL ENFOQUE SCENARIO PLANNING...................... 17
dc.description.tableofcontentsCAPÍTULO 4. MODELOS Y TÉCNICAS DE SCENARIO PLANNING .................. 31
dc.description.tableofcontentsModelo de planificación de escenarios de Shell..................... 31
dc.description.tableofcontentsModelo Global Business (GBN).................... 34
dc.description.tableofcontentsModelo de Scenario Planning mediante “Intuitive Logics” .............. 40
dc.description.tableofcontentsModelo de escenarios decisionales.................................... 42
dc.description.tableofcontentsModelo de escenarios de Peter Schwartz .................... 47
dc.description.tableofcontentsModelo teórico de construcción de escenarios........................ 51
dc.description.tableofcontentsModelo de escenarios industriales de Michael Porter......................... 53
dc.description.tableofcontentsModelo de escenarios perspectivistas ................................ 56
dc.description.tableofcontentsModelo de Scenario Planning para el análisis de los futuros tecnológicos............... 57
dc.description.tableofcontentsModelo de Scenario Planning y mapas mentales de futuro de Ian Wilson ......................... 59
dc.description.tableofcontentsModelo de Alfabetización de futuros de Riel Miller.......................... 63
dc.description.tableofcontentsModelo de planificación exploratoria de escenarios (XSP) .............................. 67
dc.description.tableofcontentsCAPÍTULO 5: APLICACIONES DEL ENFOQUE SCENARIO PLANNING EN LA ACTUALIDAD ........... 72
dc.description.tableofcontentsCONCLUSIÓN.................... 77
dc.description.tableofcontentsBIBLIOGRAFÍA .................. 78
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdf
dc.identifier.eisbn978-958-5104-99-0
dc.identifier.instnameUniversidad de Córdoba
dc.identifier.reponameRepositorio Universidad de Córdoba
dc.identifier.repourlhttps://repositorio.unicordoba.edu.co/
dc.identifier.urihttps://repositorio.unicordoba.edu.co/handle/ucordoba/9126
dc.language.isospa
dc.publisherFondo Editorial - Universidad de Córdoba
dc.publisher.placeMontería, Córdoba, Colombia
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dc.titleEnfoque scenario planning: navegando el futuro con estrategias dinámicas
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