González Quintero, Kevin AldairBetin Diaz, Fernando Jose2019-09-252019-09-252019-08-14https://repositorio.unicordoba.edu.co/handle/ucordoba/1724Since the 20th century, United States has suffered great economic recessions that even affected the economies of other countries, as expected, considering that it is one of the great world powers. These recessions have been anticipated through the yield curve, which is a graphical representation of interest rates of bonds offered by the government in the short and long term. Through this yield curve, the future of an economy can be predicted and valued, therefore it represents a fundamental importance when interpreting the expectations of investors, which is to generate profitability with data and information provided by the financial market. It is known that the yield curve, specifically the inverted one, has often been preceded by an economic recession, making it one of the most studied to anticipate these, as it was in the cases of the Great Depression, the oil crisis, The crisis of the 80s and the Great Recession in 2008, among others, is why today the great market analysts, seeing the trend of this curve, believe that for the next few years, United States will enter a recession again.RESUMEN.......................................................................................................................7ABSTRACT.....................................................................................................................8INTRODUCCIÓN...........................................................................................................9OBJETIVOS...................................................................................................................11OBJETIVO GENERAL…………………………….…………….….…………...……11OBJETIVOS ESPECÍFICOS.……………….…….………….…….………………….11CAPITULO I - FACTORES FUNDAMENTALES DE LA CURVA DE TIPOS PARA PRONOSTICAR LA RECESIÓN EN UN PAÍS……………….……….…………..12Curva de tipo de interés creciente………………………………………………………13Curva de tipo de interés invertida………………………………………………………14Curva de tipo de interés plana…………………………………….…………………….15Curva de tipo de interés oscilante o con joroba………………….……………………..16CAPITULO II - CÓMO HAN SERVIDO LAS CURVAS DE TIPO PARA ADELANTAR LAS GRANDES RECESIONES PRODUCIDAS DESDE EL SIGLO XX EN ESTADOS UNIDOS……………………………………………………………...18La Gran Depresión……………………………………………………………………...19Recesión de la década de los 80’s……………………………………………………....21La Gran Recesión del 2008……………………………………………………………..23CAPITULO III - SITUACIÓN ACTUAL DE LA ECONOMÍA DE LOS ESTADOS UNIDOS ……………………………………………………………………………….27CONCLUSIONES…………………………………………………………………….36BIBLOGRAFÍA……………………………………………………………………….37application/pdfspaCopyright Universidad de Córdoba, 2019CurvaIndicadorTrabajo de grado - Pregradoinfo:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccessAtribución 4.0 Internacional (CC BY 4.0)CurveIndicator